Nothing But Blue Skies From Now On, 72 ^
A Prologue Through a Glass Darkly
Several weeks ago I spent some time in the Baja Peninsula on Mexico’s west coast and visited the Loreto Bay National Park, home to several endangered species, along with seals, pelicans, the well known bird the blue-footed bobby and of course the dolphins. As well, the humpback, the gray and blue whale also migrate to the area at certain times of the year. Probably between January and March are the best times to see these extraordinary animals.
After visiting a cantankerous herd of seals sunning themselves on the rocks and watching a gray whale slap the water with his fin not far from where we rocked lightly back and forth on this day’s tranquil sea, we came around to the other side of a small island. Our boat’s owner and guide looked at me and said, “Mira,” while pointing to an outcropping high up on the cliff’s wall. “La cara de un gorila.” It was as he had indicated, a stern rock profile of the face of a gorilla watching steadily over the glistening bay below.
A few minutes later, in the distance, something moved in the water. It was coming toward us. A solitary animal suddenly leaped out of the water. Then several splashes, followed by even more and more. “Delphin,” the captain said quietly and turned off his engine. We waited. I thought there might be possibly 20 or 30 dolphins coming toward us. I was wrong.
Within a few minutes we estimated something like 100 dolphins rushed by our small boat, diving and leaping out of the water and then quickly vanished in the distance. It was for me a stunning and unexpected experience.
Dolphins and whales are linked to our human origins. They have their own complex language and cultural structure. They also have conscious relationship bonds. We humans I most certainly believe have much to learn from these creatures.
What is genuinely worth defending in this world I thought at that very moment. I most definitely didn’t want this to ever disappear because of human narcissism, greed and our disturbing ignorance.
I have from an early age abjured the use of meat, and the time will come when men such as I will look upon the murder of animals as they now look upon the murder of men. (Leonardo da Vinci)
Of course it is ever so easy to declare a belief or momentary intent, frequently only half understood in that instant. But what do we humans actually think we understand. The Dunning-Kruger effect (*) leaped to mind then vanished like the dolphins.
Well what can be done? Then, of course, how can it be accomplished? In many cases, our well being of sorts depends on grasping a clearer idea on just what ought to occur. Sure, but sometimes that incipient clarity is oh so uncomfortable to contemplate and then act upon.
All things swim and glitter. Our life is not so much threatened as our perception. (“Experience” an essay by Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1844)
No reason to go on except the only reason that matters:
there is nothing else to do
this is the plan
this is our place in the plan
this is the sound.
(“Bug Music,” a poem about cicadas by David Rothenberg, musician and writer)
The Howdy Doody Your Father Or Grandfather Could Have Accidently Glimpsed
Where to start? It can be a difficult question to consider, especially if you must provide a serious answer. But in this particular context, well, the United States Supreme Court’s most recent decision regarding Donald Trump’s alleged “entitlements” might be as good a place as any at this point in time in the United States.
It is, after all, the third branch of our government: the Executive, the Legislative and the Judicial. Our Constitution is the world’s longest surviving written charter of government, existing since 1789. You’d have to say that this is a record of assort, a fairly significant accomplishment … don’t you think?
Fundamental to democracy are voters conscious of their duty as citizens. Democracy is founded on human self-respect. (Mikhail Shiskin, Russian novelist)
The Court’s recent decision has upset, rattled and shocked—especially—those who claim to believe in democracy, the sanctity of our Constitution and of course that ever solemn RULE OF LAW. It’s a lot to take in, especially when so many legal talking heads on television and elsewhere have declared the court’s intent in this ruling, dismaying. Really?
The problem is, however, it involves a perception that is hardly accurate. This is a serious reason why American History and Civics ought to be required from the first grade through high school. What we have now in one way or another, in too many states, is a make-believe American history offered up by authoritarians, theocrats, the purely ignorant and a very real and growing American fascist movement.
I’m afraid I do believe this is actually occurring in 2024. In 1787 Benjamin Franklin remarked to someone after being asked what sort of government they now had. “A republic, if you can keep it,” Franklin supposedly replied.
It cuts to the dark heart of colonialist greed and capitalist corruption on which America was really founded. (Why “Killers of the Flower Moon Should Win the Best Picture Oscar,” by Steve Rose) It didn’t win.
Surely every man will have advisers by his side, but the decision will be made by one man. (Adolph Hitler, 1930s)
Constitutional rights and other legal safeguards are worthless in the face of a sufficiently powerful political movement. (Ian Millhiser, journalist specializing on the Supreme Court)
Time for all of us to understand how it actually works. Your “individual” liberty as well as your “collective” well being may depend on it. SEE: The Courts Were Never Going to Save America From Donald Trump
Coming Of Age In the Time of the Guillotine
I’m pleased to see more and more research being focused on that elusive subject of human behavior and why we humans do what we do, frequently against our self-interest.
Not that it hasn’t been a subject of interest going back to probably antiquity, from “an unexamined life is not worth living,” Socrates announced in the third century BCE and then the local politicians in Athens offered him a cup of hemlock to drink, to Sigmund Freud’s explanation in the 20th century of the ego, the superego and that recalcitrant child the “id,” refusing to obey.
But today with 8 billion humans taking up space on planet Earth, finite natural resources and an ever increasing desire of someone from somewhere to control those ever decreasing resources—along with a warming planet—it seems to me that understanding how human behavior really works ought to be the existential interest for every one of us! Of course we know it isn’t and we’re grateful for some people to make a serious attempt to locate the brightness before the damn lights go off forever.
It is not theoretical. Certainly the phrase “drill baby drill” is the mind set for those deadenders that once believed or thought they believed in weapons of mass destruction in a land far away. The deadenders are still living under their respective rocks or in mansions along Connecticut’s “gold coast” or in underground bunkers, but no longer far away.
I gladly admit at times it’s frustrating, for example, to watch the Democratic party and too many liberals and progressives in general to go on believing that it’s just a matter of getting more information out to the American voter and retooling the “facts” for enlightenment to spring forth from behind the clouds. Then when that “clarity” doesn’t immediately appear we often get, “What’s the matter with those people.” Yes, yes what is the matter … and not with just those people and certainly not just within the realm of politics?
I recently came across an article entitled, “The behavioral crisis driving ecological overshoot,” written in September 2023 and published by Sage Journals. It dealt with what is referred to as “ecological overshoot,” meaning we’re using up earth’s natural resources faster than we can ever replace them. The article goes on to say that, “This focus is critical because to date, a mere quarter of humanity--the wealthy quarter—is responsible for 74% of excess energy and material use. This, when taken alone, is sufficient to propel the human enterprise into overshoot.”
Of course the rich are different from you and me, dear boy. They see themselves in a different space. Hm-m. Perhaps we can no longer tolerate them and their decaying space. See: Gates, Zuck, Trump: The Ambani pre-wedding
Boiled down to its essential idea, the article speaks about our behavior crisis and confronting these maladaptive human behaviors. Perhaps, as the authors suggest, psycho-behavioral change over technological interventions might have “greater potential” to relieve human pressures on Earth. It is about grasping a clearer response. Yeah, but be wary of the person that says he/she alone has the answer.
Digging In the Dirt and Conjuring Up Magic
What are we Americans so afraid of? Oh yes we are afraid and it’s not just of the monster in the closet that terrifies the children at night.
The Chapman Fear Survey of 2023 lists the 10 things we fear the most. Once again in 2023 government corruption leads the list. Uncertainty is a leading cause, especially in the time of partisan media and our own confirmation bias, while dwelling in our particular information silos. Many news organizations learn what we are most worried about and what we fear and then bombard us with information confirming those fears.
Last but not the least is that we are attracted to bad news more than good news. Supposedly the infamous newspaper tycoon William Randolph Hearst said in the late 1890s, “If it bleeds, it leads.” Just how different is it today in so many cases? Overall crime in the U.S., for example, has gone down according to numerous surveys, both public and private, yet many people in assorted polls state that overall crime has gone up. Perception does matter.
What about the American economy? By all accounts our economy is one of the strongest in the world at the present time, according to traditional, verifiable data. Wages are going up and staying ahead of inflation and inflation is going down or remaining relatively stable, at least for the time being. A record number of new jobs were created in just this past month. The economic statistics are actually pretty damn good in general. Yet….
I’ve learned that 12 Snicker bars are sold in the U.S. every second. Now this happens to be extremely important regarding our economic perceptions. While Snicker bars are not consuming a big portion of the family budget, this candy bar or something like it is purchased more frequently, for example, gas in your car (SUV possibly?) or maybe that Starbucks coffee you consider essential in the morning on the way to work. We tend to notice these costs because they occur frequently. Distance and time truly makes the heart forgetful.
Those big ticket items like television sets, furniture and electronics are purchased less frequently and are in fact falling in price. But on the other hand, food prices, in general, are still rising but probably not as fast. Food is a story in itself and “cheap” food may become a real thing of the past because of climate change, especially if you want that special food grown in the winter in southern California and you live in Duluth, Minnesota in January. But something like 15% of Americans don’t believe in climate change anyway.
And yes, there is the matter of rents—going up. Affordable housing people notice and can sour a lot of folks into believing it’s all bad. See: American dream of owning a home is dead
We could of course discuss public policy but we won’t. Just pull up your bootstraps and let the market do its job; after all this is the U.S. and accepting the view that we Americans may have it quite wrong, about so many things, way beyond who can use what bathroom or what book ought to be pulled off the shelf, is hard to accept. We could even be as benighted as so many other countries on the planet.
The long and short of all of this is that the average consumer believes inflation is higher than it really is. It’s about perception. You remember the price of things bought more frequently. As well, this perception affects smart people as well as, maybe, those that are not so smart. But still, in the end, we have too many people living marginal economic lives in the U.S. This is public policy, who controls it and the degree we believe that helping others ultimately benefits all of us.
Humans are genetically programmed to emphasize bad news over good news when they make decisions. Aversion to loss is a primitive survival mechanism—we run away from the tiger faster than we run toward food.
It’s called Jevons Paradox, named for William Stanley Jevons, a 19th century English economist that observed that while steam engines were getting more and more efficient, Britain’s hunger for coal increased rather than decreased.
LED lights were invented by Japanese scientists in the 1990s. It was hoped that LED technology would reduce the amount of energy we use. After all, LED provides 300 lumen per watt, a lumen means how much light you are getting from a bulb. More lumen means brighter light. A compact fluorescent provides 70 lumen per watt and a incandescent light provides 16 lumen.
What has been discovered, however, is that we’re consuming about the same amount of electricity today as in 2010. Sure, we have increases in population and economic growth in the developing world, but another significant reason is human behavior. We most definitely need to give serious thought to whether or not the Jevons Paradox is “hard-wired” into us.
While we’ve replaced existing bulbs with LED alternatives we have also developed even more improvident uses for these ever more cheaper lights. Immersive art installations, Las Vegas nights, Super Bowl extravaganzas and so much more. This is only the tip of the melting iceberg on this one and only planet.
For more information on the above see:
The Paradox Holding Back the Clean Energy Revolution
The Chapman Survey of American Fears 2023” is in the article “What are we so afraid of”
(^)The song “Blue Skies” was written by Irving Berlin, 1926
(*) The Dunning-Kruger effect I’ve written about in Substack before. Simply, it’s about cognitive bias. People with limited competence in a particular field overestimate their competence and sometimes those with genuine competence in their field tend to underestimate their competence.
Buy It, Need It, Love It and Choose It
When discussing perception of any sort the name of Edward Bernays has to be mentioned. Judge for yourself whether or not his insights were mainly for the good, the bad or somewhere in between.
Bernays is often thought of as the “father of public relations,” born in 1891 in Vienna, he lived to be 103. Most definitely Bernays was an American pioneer in public relations and “propaganda.” In its most neutral sense it’s a method and a means to spread particular ideas. All of us are consumers and all of us are persuadable in one form or another at one time or another.
The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested largely by men we have never heard of. (Edward Bernays, Propaganda, 1928)
How One Man Rebranded Propaganda (video)
How to control what people do (video)
The 1920s in the United States has been referred to as the “golden dawn” of complete and total advertising. It was when there was an increasing use of psychology and understanding the secret emotions that motivated people to buy something. One single ad stands out in the 1920s that embodies the modern style, technique and imagination of advertising emotion.
The creator of this new idea was a copywriter by the name of Ned Jordan, who specialized in auto advertising and managed to raise something like $400,000 for his total advertising campaign. The ad made no reference to the car’s power, style or the internal components. What the ad did do in 173 words is create the idea of freedom and romance. And this ad sold cars, a lot of them.
A drawing of a woman in a fast sport’s car and racing next to her is a cowboy on his horse running alongside her. Here’s a portion of the ad.
Somewhere West of Laramie
Somewhere west of Laramie there’s a broncho busting, steer-roping girl who knows what I’m talking about.
She can tell what a sassy pony, that’s a cross between greased lightening and the place where it hits, can do with eleven hundred pounds of steel and action when he’s going high, wide and handsome.
The truth is—the Playboy was built for her.
Built for the lass whose face is brown with the sun when the day is done of revel and romp and race.
JORDAN
Jordan Motor Car Company
Oil, Oil and Not A Drop To Use
It could of course all hit the fan, possibly between 2024 and 2030. Then of course it might not.
It’s about the interconnections, according to at least one person, between non-renewable natural resources, persistent pollution, population, food production and industrial production.
The proverbial point is that all things peak and then “go south”—like us for example. The system is no longer sustainable and it just might occur much sooner than we think. Look carefully at the state of the petroleum industry and understand what “hopelessly depends on petroleum.” Virtually everything it seems. Now pause for maybe 30 seconds and consider what that could mean.
It took millions of years for nature to create this magical elixir and possibly only a few centuries to make it vanish or at least become too expensive to extract below the ground or under the sea. Well then, but we could have a crash renewables program, like the 20th century Manhattan Project, when we built the atomic bomb. Isn’t that right? Anyway….
Darren Woods, Chief Executive Officer for Exxon-Mobile, the largest publicly traded oil company in the world recently appeared to blame the consumer for not wanting to pay for “clean” energy, causing a major backlash. We would be able to do so much more, Darren indicated if it were not for [stupid, my word] and selfish people, this particular and overindulged corporate suit appeared to offer up. I suspect this kind of free market brazenness will grow, at least for a short while.
Exxon has been aware of the science of climate change and global warming at least since the 1960s. For that matter a Swedish scientist in 1896 predicted that rising CO2 levels could alter surface temperatures. Another scientist in the 1930s connected the dots between CO2 and global warming.
Do you think it could have made a difference had EXXON and other corporate hustlers said something? It seems that Exxon is now trying to skirt climate accountability. SEE: Fury After Exxon chief says public to blame for climate failures
2025 and beyond is when the world is going to be short of oil. (Occidental Petroleum CEO)
It was a wholly unsustainable proposition from the get go. ( The Honest Sorcerer, Medium)
For anyone that wants a deeper understanding and more factual information about the unsustainable cost of locating increasingly expensive oil go to: 2025: A Civilizational Tipping Point
Yes, of course it’s possible that we may have seen the peak of human civilization. Might we survive? Well … never say never, and yes we might but under a quite different scenario most likely and probably with fewer humans inhabiting the Earth, along with fewer rock concerts, fewer food choices, maybe a shortened life expectancy and a lot fewer choices in general.
But religious fundamentalism of all kinds will probably boom, promising ever lasting, whatever, at least for a short while. Oh, the very, very rich will have their bunkers. Do you? Maybe some of them know something you don’t.
It’s a possible future that many of us can’t imagine or won’t accept. For those that think it matters get very busy. Licking a few stamps, writing to your favorite politician or waving a placard at a protest rally I’d never discourage, but you will be required to do a lot more with no guarantees whatsoever. To what extent will we grasp a clearer idea? To what extent are we able to? What motivates you beyond yourself and your own needs?
Oh, you might also watch the movie “Children of Men,” which came out in 2006. It remains one of my favorite.
Well worth the read if you want to explore the “weeds” and consider the need for more clarity, vision and implementation, See: How I Came to Believe That Civilization is Unsustainable
The Ongoing Epilogue
I’d recommend reading Paul Krugman’s article in the NYT from 1/16 entitled, The Mystery of White Rural Rage. Krugman contends that this is “arguably the single greatest threat facing American democracy.” While I certainly don’t believe this is the “greatest” threat to democracy, it is an arresting piece that ought to be read. The comment section is also worthwhile because of the diversity of opinion and Krugman’s responses to many of the comments.
His piece clearly points out that much of rural America is being left behind, for both real issues and what I call imaginary beliefs and some obvious, heartfelt victimization, along with the typical, depressing and pathetic American racism, xenophobia, parochialism, lack of education and too often with a distorted view of itself as somehow possessing the “true” moral character of America.
Once again it appears that rural white America is easily manipulated and ever so determined to vote against its self-interest. Not a recipe for a better world unfortunately. But, most important, it sure as hell is not an excuse for the rest of us to not fight to make our planet livable and protect what is genuinely worthwhile. Too much is at stake.
Because of technology we are doing more with less. The coal industry, for example, has lost something like 80% of its workforce but is far more productive because of technology. There are fewer economic opportunities in rural America. The larger metropolitan areas are where the educated workforce is located. In terms of providing assistance to rural areas we do, as Krugman rightly points out. It is definitely not because of the benevolence of anti-democratic groups.
Assistance is disproportionately financed from taxes paid by workers in urban areas. Take a look at the chart that shows who is paying what to whom. Yes, so many in rural America and in the U.S. congress can hardly see beyond the next day. The rest of us better be able to.
We do, however, need to make rural America work for the people that live there, especially if our economic unraveling has begun and sustainability becomes more than an urban coffee shop conversation. No, it can’t be written off and handed over to authoritarians and those who desire far worse.
Whenever I look at Donald Trump all I can conjure up in my mind is a swarm of flies circling a pile of rancid meat. He may be for me one of the most repellent creatures in public life today. He is a vile, disturbed and a limited life form. But … so be it.
Trump, in the short term, is a useful tool for those behind the destruction of any sort of functioning democracy, a healthy planet, a degree of equality and justice and a meaning of happiness in the best sense of the word that we can imagine. Make no mistake, Trump is being cheered on by most anti-democratic thugs on this planet, including our own in the U.S.
“Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s gonna be a bloodbath.” This uplifting quotation comes from Trump in his most recent “Horst Wessel” rally#. I came across the quotation late last night in an article from Politico entitled, “Trump says country faces bloodbath if Biden wins in November.” Every gangster on the planet knows how this works. Just scare them into submission.
Enough with the endless handwringing and frustration , along with the obvious ignorance that abounds in this country. We have never lived in a Willy Wonka Chocolate Factory but we all deserve to wake up in the morning with an occasional bird singing and be able to envision a future of some kind for the next generation—a future for all life.
(#) Horst Wessel was a Nazi murdered by two communists in 1930. Hitler and company decided to make him a martyr to further the cause of National Socialism and the Nazi party.
Stepping out of the dark and observing the creativity of movement and imagination:
CDK-Somebody I Used to Know (video)
READING & SOURCES
How Trump Allies Are Winning the War On Disinformation
To Beat Trump We Need to Know Why
Nearly 15% Don't Believe Climate Change is Real
Cheaper to Save the World Than To Destroy It
The People Have a Right to Climate Data
Nature Has Value, Could We Literally Invest In It
The Least and Most Educated States
A Hunter's Lyrical Reflection of the Humbling Business of Being Mortal
&&& If you like this article and think it has something to say, share it and pass it on. It’s a collective effort and numbers matter to make change or prevent the worst. If you don’t like it, well, you’ve only wasted a few minutes in your life.